PROJECTED Class AA tournament bracket
With the seeding meeting just two days away and only THREE basketball games remaining in the regular season, it was time to bust out the calculator this week. I’ll roll more projections out throughout the weekend.
None of today’s games has bearing on where the teams will shake out in the Class AA playoffs — if my calculations are correct, that is. With that in mind, below you will find the following for Class AA:
• My projected seeds
• New York state records for each team
• Bonus points, or potential bonus points, for each team
• The playoff index of each team
• A list of teams that did not qualify
• Potential playoff matchups
Of course, this is all dependent on all 18 accepting bids to the postseason.
In the meantime, what matchups do you find the most intriguing? Scarsdale, Mamaroneck, New Rochelle and Ramapo all have the misfortune of trying to advance against league rivals Mount Vernon and North Rockland it has been unable to beat so far. The rest of the draw appears to pair strangers against one another. That includes seeds 11-14, which appear like pretty formidable underdogs.
Your thoughts?
Class AA PROJECTED SEEDS —
1. Mount Vernon (13-0, +9) = 4.6923
2. Fox Lane (15-3, +15) = 4.1667
3. Mahopac (13-5, +16) = 3.7778
4. Clarkstown South (14-4, +11) = 3.7222
5. Carmel (12-3, +7) = 3.6667
6. Arlington (13-5, +11) = 3.50
7. North Rockland (12-6, +14) = 3.4444
8. New Rochelle (9-5, +12) = 3.4286
9. Mamaroneck (12-6, +11) = 3.27778
10. Ramapo (11-7, +12) = 3.1111
11. Horace Greeley (9-9, +17) = 2.9444
12. White Plains (8-9, +16) = 2.8235
13. John Jay-EF (8-10, +10) = 2.3333
14. Ossining (5-13, +21) = 2.27778
15. Suffern (6-12, +15) = 2.1667
16. Clarkstown North (6-12, +14) = 2.1111
17. Scarsdale (5-12, +14) = 2.0
18. Gorton (6-12, +10) = 1.8889
19. Lincoln (3-13, +9) = 1.3125
Did not qualify:
Ketcham
Yorktown
Class AA PROJECTED MATCHUPS —
Outbracket round:
No. 19 Lincoln at No. 14 Ossining
No. 18 Gorton at No. 15 Suffern
No. 17 Scarsdale at No. 16 Clarkstown North
Opening round:
Scarsdale/Clarkstown North at No. 1 Mount Vernon
No. 9 Mamaroneck at No. 8 New Rochelle
No. 12 White Plains at No. 5 Carmel
No. 13 John Jay-East Fishkill at No. 4 Clarkstown South
No. 11 Horace Greeley at No. 6 Arlington
Ossining/Lincoln at No. 3 Mahopac
Suffern/Gorton at No. 2 Fox Lane
No. 10 Ramapo at No. 7 North Rockland
Quarterfinals:
Scarsdale/Clarkstown North/Mount Vernon vs. Mamaroneck/New Rochelle
White Plains/Carmel vs. John Jay-East Fishkill/Clarkstown South
Horace Greeley/Arlington vs. Ossining/Lincoln/Mahopac
Suffern/Gorton/Fox Lane vs. Ramapo/North Rockland
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So Woodlands beat the projected 2 seed in class AA…Woodlands will probably be the #3 seed in Class B. Other than Mount Vernon, what does that say about class parity? Are the top 3 in B (AM, DF, and Woodlands) better than 2-4 in AA?
Personally, I believe that after MV and TZ, the top 4 small schools (AM, DF, Woodlands, and Tuckahoe) can play with anyone else in the section
I agree 5, after MV anyone is fair game. I’ve never seen such class parity. It could be good that teams get tested every night or bad if our brand of ball is low this yr. The section 1 rep will prove us right or wrong during the state run.
There is actually a chance that Ossining could move ahead of John Jay. Jay ratio is wrong as they have played 18games. Will all come down to whether either team gets bonus points for games today.
You have to remember that Woodlands lost to Fox Lane earlier this season.
I believe Lincoln has also qualified. They have over .250 winning percentage in their league. If they end up being the 19th team how does that change the match ups?
Hambletonian… You are 100 percent correct. I put Yonkers in last night for the same reason in A, but screwed up with Lincoln. I will correct this.
Dutchess man… I talked to the John Jay AD. He said John Jay only scheduled 17 and was 8-9. I will check it again today.
the system is the most atrocious thing of all time… look at the standings, minus mt vernon, teams seeded one through seven are all from rockland county/Dutchess and play trash for scheudle. Somthing has to be done. a league with mt vernon new ro whiteplains mamaroneck and scarsale only has 1 team in the top 7 spots! thats by far the hardest league in section one, if not the state. it should be reconized that their records might be a little worse then those “maopacs and fox lanes” of the world, and still not have to have a lesser seed. #FTS
Dutchess man… The Arlington coach, Matt Hoyt, was able to help me identify the 18th game for John Jay-EF. However, since Guilderland is now over .750, John Jay has the bonus points to stay ahead of Ossining no matter what happens with Pleasantville.
Statesman
Thwt argument is made every year. WP is not that strong this yr. Mamaroneck lost to PAC and New Ro could have beaten Mamaroneck to control their destiny. No denying that is a great league but New Ro is a bit down this yr, Mamaroneck finally had the stars aligned for them with only MT Vernon being great in that league. Everyone in that league minus MT Vernon would lose to Magnus, Fox lane, C South, Tappan Zee, Peekskill, to name a few. If we are honest this is a down yr for that league. Don’t disparage Fox Lane or South, No Rock they are all solid teams. Outside of MV anyone in AA can beat anyone.
Statesman,
Strength of schedule plays a part in the seedings. Those top 5 or 7 teams must have played somebody pretty good.
Wow, why use my blog name?
The Dutchess league will prove their worth as the post season moves on. Every year it’s the same. Win your games now when it counts and you’ll be fine.
Guys, the true Statesman of the blog would never post that.
I do believe Mahopac went to the CC last yr and played MV tougher then POK did in the prior 3 finals.
You can use w/e name youd like but I get the feeling you’re using on close to mine to stir the spot. Be your own man (Unless you went, go, or are going to Hobart)
Outside MV, I think this season has shown us anyone in AA-A-B and Tuckahoe can play w/ anyone.
NothinButNet,
Those teams 2-7 are receieving those bonus points for playing teams with good records…(but those teams with good records play a very below average scheudle and therefore have those good records)
DuctchessMAn ure clearly bias towards rockland county teams because firt off tapan zee, magnus and peekskill arent even in AA so nice try secondly new ro and mamaroneck and prob even white plains would be 16-2 every year if they didnt all play in the same league togheter
states x2,
I appreciate that.
Don’t use someone else’s blog name. Thank you.
ya def a no no on using someones blog name…All im saying is the system is terrible
No prob, the system is flawed but nothing is going to be perfect. Even Piner in the fall could use work. You left Geneva in ‘92, I left in ‘10. Pleasure to have you on the blog.
States,
No bias just real talk. Those teams mentioned regardless of class are solid teams. You have to go by how good teams r this yr, not by reputation. WP did not lose 10 games in their league. WP and Mamaroneck have the chance in sect every year to beat teams outside oftheir league and never advance. MV is in a class by themselves and most years new Ro is just a notch below MV. The rest of that league can be beaten by any of the top 7 seeds this yr at anytime. Live in the present not the past
So what’s your point Raw?
Dutchess,
Address your comment to Bart 92. Not me!
[...] you missed it, here are the projected seedings and matchups for Class AA that were posted Saturday morning. Class A’s projected tournament bracket was updated to [...]
FINAL 4
MOUNT VERNON VS EITHER WHITE PLAINS OR CLARKSTOWN SOUTH
FOX LANE VS MAHOPAC
It’s a shame M-neck plays NewRo in the opening round. Josh do you know when it will be played. That’s a CC type game. Will Clark play? MV’s going to carve-up whoever gets put in front of them. Stamp their ticket to GF. They’ll win at West Pt. Hopefully, that’s the location for the Newburgh or Kingston game. I’m not gloating it’s just that kind if year. I’ve been watching Uniondale/Freeport on MSGV to check out the LI Comp. Shaq Mosely can play. Hopefully. After BC gets inducted into the NY Bball HOF, the Vern wins back to back NYSPHSAA Championships. Proud of the Fellas! Don’t Let-Up!!!!
Reality Check,
Hopefully an executive decision is made. I hate teams in the same league meeting up so early.
Actually, I take the hopefully back on the West Pt location. As much as I like going up there. It’s time Newburgh, Kingston, whoever comes downstate to play. Mt Vernon, it’s Family & Fans deserve the respect. Play the State Qtrs at the CC or Pace or even better ask Iona to host it!!!
last years game was at the county center,mv blew newburgh out
Statesmen,
Could an executive decision be made, so the whole mamo new ro and then play mt vernon game thing be changed? i dont get it… its unfair they have the same amount of wins as North Rockland and one less then a couple other teams, and played much touger competion and still end up with the fortune of playing Mt vernon in the 2nd round if they beat new ro…If any of those teams play mt vernon twice then new ro twice, theyd also have at least 3 more losses on their record.
Completely, forgot that Haywood. Had to go to the back of the 2011 Championship T-shirt to refresh my failing memory. Will it be at the CC again? How do they decide? I know it was at W Pt 2yrs ago. Wasn’t it up there 3yrs ago as well?Do they go by which team is a higher seed? They should. That would keep it at the CC
Ball,
They’ll iron it out in their meeting tomorrow. I def agree with you guys on all parts. The MV league is brutal. Not only do you have 2 losses off the top, you have everyone else beating up on each other. Even bonus points didn’t help those teams. What’s the reward for playing a tough schedule if this is going to happen every year? I hope the commitee decision trump card plays more into effect this year to bring some rationality to the AA bracket. They would curb a lot of excitement of M’Neck or New Ro were to go home in the first rd at each others hands.
You guys all have to stop with the whining about the playoff seedings. When the commitee meets tommorow they are not going to change the seedings because teams from the same league have to play each other. Thats the unlucky break this year. Plus the bottom line is that none of those three teams, New Rochelle, White Plains, or Mamarroneck are really any better than the teams in front of them. Outside of Mount Vernon, any one of the top 10, 11 teams can beat each other on a given night. A lot of you guys just think that New Rochelle and White Plains deserve to be in the County Center with Mount Vernon every year
The most intriguing game in the projected opening round to me is WP/Carmel. This game I believe could be a big step in seeing how the teams in Put/ Dutch stack up. I understand WP is a bit down but really think the teams up north are getting better each year and are able to compete and will continue to.
White Plains hasn’t been to the CC in a while actually. I just think it takes the fun out of the playoffs if in the first rd you’re playing a team for the third time. I like the matchups between teams that haven’t seen each other. We may be griping but it’s hardly whining. In the end you have to play who you will so we’ll see how the cards play out.
REALITY CHECK,
THEY ROTATE,WITH THREE DIFFERENT SECTIONS,AND 1 TEAM GETS A BYE INTO THE REGION FINAL,SITE TO ME IS UNKNOWN
How’s the bye work? Don’t remember a bye last yr.
I agree with Satesman 100%. I would prefer to see teams play each other that did not face each other during the regular season….similar to one of the unique aspects of the NCAA basketball tournament.
Reality Check… The first round games are scheduled for Friday.
Reality,
The regional semi bye rotates between sections 1, 4 & 9. I believe the section with the bye hosts the regional final. See link below to last years bracket.
I believe section 1 has the bye this year.
http://www.roadtoglensfalls.com/brackets/2011-bkb-aa.shtml
REALITY CHECK,
BEING THAT THERE ARE ONLY THREE TEAMS,EACH YEAR ONE GOES STRAIGHT TO THE FINAL OF THE REGION.
JOSH,
WHAT INFO. DO YOU HAVE ON THE SITES AFTER COUNTY CENTER,AND WHO GETS THE BYE THIS YEAR?
Most interesting thing I find about the “AA” which someone else pointed out is that the number 2 seed just lost to Woodlands, which is not on the top three or so in “A”...just a unique year I guess . I think the entire NYS system needs to be thrown out the window..,it’s become to predictable. I would prefer the same system states like Kentucky & Indiana use & let all schools reguardless of size play for one champion in the state.
JMOOSE,
THANKS,GOOD LUCK,I BELIEVE IT WILL BE NEWBURGH THAT GETS OUT OF SEC.9
Sorry to go so of topic
Love the Pac, but they are overrated. Not CC bound this year
PACFAN,
LOOK AT YOUR DRAW,WHAT TEAM IS GOING TO KEEP PACFAN FROM THE COUNTY?
It sounds like the Knights get a bye & stay at the County Center for two weeks.
The entire system is flawed. Take a look at alot of the AA teams lets say Ramapo and Clarkstown North or South. They have enrollments of around 1200. Then take New Ro Mount Vernon North Rocklnad and White Plains. These schools are all well over 2000 students. The truth is most AA schools are much closer in size with A schools and even B schools then they are with the super AA schools. But they have to play against teams who have enrollment numbers that are double theirs just because there is not enough of those huge schools
That’s the problem. On paper, nobody. The issue is that they play down to the competition. Look @ all of their losses this year. They lost to teams at they should have killed! The killer instinct isn’t in the Mahopac drinking water for any sports!
Somethin tells me Pacfan isn’t a Pac fan….
They lost to Pearl River Peekskill and Kennedy what r u talking about
how can you say they lost to temas they shuldve killed they lost to peekskill on the road who is the like 3 seed in A then to Kennedy who is one of the best teams in A then Pearl River on the road who is very good especially at home… yea they lost to carmel but they r the 5 seed which shows they r pretty good and the only bad loss in Somers on the road
I don’t care where the hell they played Pearl River. If they want to take the next step they had better stop making excuses and just finish! Somers? Come on! the worst Peekskill team in recent memory, and a Kennedy team that is just above average.
They’ve lost one home game in 2 years Nd that was on a buzzerbeater to a very good Yorktown team last year….there’s no team in their draw that will beat them at home
PACFAN,
IF YOU GET TO THE COUNTY CENTER WITH TWO ONE POINT VICTORIES,YOU WILL TAKE IT
Isaiah cousins- Mr. Basketball
You are right, I will take a trip to the CC. I just think that they will look past a team and get upset. There is no killer instinct in the PAC water!
PACMAN ,
Have you been watching the same team that everyone else has. This team got revenge in the Carmel and Somers losses in a big way. That the games were close this year, speaks to the quality of basketball in the League. As for the non-league losses, a two point game against peekskill and one point games against pearl river and JFK inh the last 20 seconds is not playing down to competition. Like any team, if this team plays well, the possibility is there to make the CC
Pacfan
Saying Mahopac is going to lose because they lack a “killer instinct” makes you look like you’re not really all that familiar with the team or you just don’t know basketball, or both.
Analyst,
revenge against teams they should have beaten in the 1st place. You can’t get revenge in the tourney! I really hope they prove me wrong and make it to the CC.
Mahopac Maniac,
they might have won but look @ the scores against some inferior competition. They play down to the other teams level and my guess is that someone sneaks up on them! No more revenge…..1 and done!
I think what separates top level basketball players from pretty good basketball players is body size and athleticism, and skill sets. Mahopac traditionally fields players whose primary sport is not basketball. It’s not a matter of heart or killer instinct. As a matter of fact I think this year’s group does a good job of competing. The Mahopac basketball team from 2009 is a good example of this. Great competitors but average ball players. They got to the CC though and avoided getting blown out by Mt. Vernon. I could see this years team possibly doing the same thing.
Haywood,
I sure hope so…. NFA looks like they are hitting a stride. I believe that NFA, Kingston and Middletown are all very close talent wise. However, I believe NFA has a slight depth advantage over the other 2. Kingston appears to be hitting a bump all of a sudden, lost to NFA on the road and then struggled with Pine Bush at home friday. I would not be surprised if they lost to Middletown on the road this week. Kendrick Ray’s last home game so he may be a force that evening.
Should be a good sectional tourney. I have to admit I nothing about section 4 this year so no clue who will come from up there. Bing? UE? anyone know?
PACFAC—Sounds like you have ohter issues with Mahopac and maybe you should change your name to PAC HATER!
B-Ball IQ,
Indiana doesn’t do that now. Lots of controversy a few years ago when they switched.