Varsity Insider

Below is the first part of our Week 9 predictions. They will conclude — along with our season-long picks contest — with the five Section 1 championship games. That is, whenever and wherever those games are played…

For now, let’s pick eight more games, starting with “Wednesday’s” Class AA and A semifinals and followed by the DeMatteo Bowl games for AA and A. MSG Varsity reported that White Plains-Scarsdale has been moved to Friday. I will post when and where these four games will be played (again) when they are all finalized.

And I thought this snow screwed up the remainder of my golf season? At least I have time to wait for it to melt. Section 1 football has no such luxury of time.

Anyway, let’s get to the rest of the picks…

My 2011 Record
Last week: 29-6 (14-1 in Top 10)
Top 10: 59-27
Overall: 238-79

Wednesday —
Class AA semifinals
No. 2A New Rochelle (7-1) at No. 1B North Rockland (7-1), 3 p.m.: If history means anything, this could determine the sectional champion. No other program has won Class AA since Carmel in 1998, with North Rockland and New Rochelle trading titles. The Huguenots have won the last five but they narrowly kept their streak alive in the quarterfinals, stuffing a two-point conversion in the final minute of Thursday’s 13-12 win over White Plains. North Rockland has won its last seven straight, including a 49-6 victory over Scarsdale last week. The Red Raiders last beat New Rochelle in 2005, when they also last won the section. New Ro has won the last six games in the series and allowed just two TDs to North Rockland over the last five. That includes shutouts in the ‘07, ‘09 and ‘10 playoffs. But this is a different season and different teams. Don’t expect either team to score much on the other. A big play here or there on defense or special teams could swing the game. Although all evidence suggests North Rockland, I think New Ro has a better chance to produce one or two of those game-changing plays. PREDICTION: New Ro 14, North Rockland 10

No. 3A Clarkstown South (7-1) at No. 1A John Jay-East Fishkill (7-1), 6 p.m.: Little is left to the imagination with these two teams, who rely on straight ahead, power football. John Jay is the highest-rated opponent and likely the best team South has faced all season. The Viking defense, which limited Clarkstown North to just one touchdown in a 21-7 road win in the quarterfinals, will be tested by Patriots fullback Bobby Henderson. The senior topped 100 yards and rushed for all three touchdowns in last Thursday’s 19-6 win over rival Arlington. South’s defense is stout and will be ready to stuff anything up the middle. John Jay may need to open up its offense, at least to soften South against the power running. Same goes when South has the ball. The outcome may depend on which QB makes a few plays in the passing game, and that remains to be seen. But you have to favor John Jay because it is the better tested team. PREDICTION: John Jay 17, South 10

Class A semifinals —
No. 2A Ossining (6-2) vs. No. 1B Poughkeepsie (8-0), at Arlington High School, time TBD: Ossining is perhaps the day’s biggest playoff underdog. Fresh off a 35-26 comeback win over surprising Gorton, Ossining will play one of Section 1’s three remaining unbeatens on the road. The high-powered Pioneers flummoxed defending champ Harrison 41-6 in the quarterfinals behind another big effort from quarterback Josh Oliver. Ossining will likely test Poughkeepsie’s secondary like no other with quarterback Brian Connolly and his various targets. I think they’ll have to produce a huge day to win, and even then it may not be enough. Ossining will have trouble stopping the Pioneer offense, both the big plays and the power of it. PREDICTION: Poughkeepsie 37, Ossining 15

No. 3A Rye (5-3) at No. 1A John Jay (7-1), 7 p.m.: The Garnets lost to John Jay 14-7 in Week 2, a result that sparked the Indians’ current seven-game winning streak. Rye and its power running game rides in on a five-game streak of its own, including a muddy 14-7 win at Pearl River in the quarterfinals. The Garnets, who won three state tiles in Class B, hope to reach their first Section 1 final in A. John Jay, which has never reached the state playoffs, is fresh off a 28-7 victory over Somers that was highlighted by Danny Caiola’s three rushing touchdowns. Dino Garr said Monday at practice that his team must limit big plays. John Jay is the faster team, and its QBs were able to make plays downfield passing and with long runs. The Indians may have the antidote against Rye because their offense is so diverse. After seeing them, I thought long and hard about reversing my pick, but I’m going to stick with the Garnets after picking them before the playoffs. PREDICTION: Rye 22, John Jay 21 (OT)

DeMatteo Bowls —
Somers (5-3) vs. Pearl River (6-2): Common opponents aren’t exactly telling with these teams. Both beat Nyack in the final seconds, while, in Week 1, Somers beat Rye, the team Pearl River lost to in the Class A quarterfinals. I don’t know if the Tuskers are playing quite at the level they were early in the season. This one should be close, and two of the section’s best kickers — Tom Barcia and Connor O’Sullivan — could help decide it. PREDICTION: Somers 17, Pearl River 13

White Plains (4-3) vs. Scarsdale (4-4): While White Plains nearly beat New Rochelle for the first time in eight seasons in last week’s Class AA quarterfinals, Scarsdale struggled early against a North Rockland team that edged White Plains in Week 2. The Raiders are not a big team and White Plains has really developed up front. Unable to hurt the Tigers at the line of scrimmage, I don’t think Scarsdale can keep up. PREDICTION: White Plains 34, Scarsdale 14

Clarsktown North (4-4) vs. Arlington (5-3): North lost at Arlington 23-3 in Week 5 but the Ras played without seven two-way starters in that game. But QB Travis Samuels was banged up last week in the loss to South. If he’s out, North will be without not only its top player but the guy who makes the team go. That’ll be tough to overcome for a team that lacks a dynamic offense. PREDICTION: Arlington 24, North 10

Harrison (4-4) vs. Gorton (6-2): A week after it challenged Ossining before falling behind in the second half, Gorton will face a Harrison team hungry to stay over .500. The Huskies beat Ossining 31-0 in Week 5. You have to respect how well Gorton played last week, especially from the opening kickoff. But if they couldn’t beat Ossining, it seems unlikely the Wolves will beat Harrison. The Huskies prepare for every game like it’s the Super Bowl. PREDICTION: Harrison 35, Gorton 13